Authors :
Kanav Mittal
Volume/Issue :
Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 10 - October
Google Scholar :
https://tinyurl.com/mr4yb6ps
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26Oct1108
Note : A published paper may take 4-5
working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and
ResearchGate.
Abstract :
This thesis presents a comprehensive exploration of mortality dynamics, survival analysis, population ageing, epidemiological modelling, longevity inequality, and health economics. It integrates mathematical foundations with intuitive explanations designed to make complex ideas accessible without reducing academic rigor. The work develops survival and hazard functions from first principles, applies Gompertz and Makeham mortality models, constructs mortality forecasts, analyses demographic ageing, examines disease-driven mortality patterns, and evaluates inequality in longevity outcomes. The thesis concludes with integrated policy implications and a brief note on how actuaries may apply these models in future risk assessments.
References :
- Bowers, N. L., Gerber, H. U., Hickman, J. C., Jones, D. A., & Nesbitt, C. J. (1997). Actuarial Mathematics (2nd ed.). Schaumburg, IL: Society of Actuaries.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.). Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice. Atlanta, GA: CDC.
- Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115, 513-583.
- Human Mortality Database. (2026). Human Mortality Database. Berkeley, CA: University of California, Berkeley, and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
- Kleinbaum, D. G., & Klein, M. (2012). Survival Analysis: A Self-Learning Text (3rd ed.). New York, NY: Springer.
- Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modelling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659-671.
- Makeham, W. M. (1860). On the law of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 8(6), 301-310.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2026). OECD Health Statistics. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- Our World in Data. (2025). Healthcare Spending. Oxford: Global Change Data Lab.
- Our World in Data. (2025). Life Expectancy. Oxford: Global Change Data Lab.
- Pennsylvania State University. (n.d.). STAT 507: Survival Analysis. University Park, PA: Penn State Eberly College of Science.
- Statistics By Jim. (n.d.). Survival Analysis. Phoenix, AZ: Statistics by Jim Publishing.
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2025). World Population Ageing and Ageing Portal. New York, NY: United Nations.
- Wilmoth, J. R., & Horiuchi, S. (1999). Rectangularization revisited: Variability of age at death within human populations. Population and Development Review, 25(3), 475-495.
- World Bank. (2025). Health, Nutrition and Population Data. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
- World Health Organization. (2026). WHO Mortality Database. Geneva: World Health Organization.
This thesis presents a comprehensive exploration of mortality dynamics, survival analysis, population ageing, epidemiological modelling, longevity inequality, and health economics. It integrates mathematical foundations with intuitive explanations designed to make complex ideas accessible without reducing academic rigor. The work develops survival and hazard functions from first principles, applies Gompertz and Makeham mortality models, constructs mortality forecasts, analyses demographic ageing, examines disease-driven mortality patterns, and evaluates inequality in longevity outcomes. The thesis concludes with integrated policy implications and a brief note on how actuaries may apply these models in future risk assessments.
