Authors :
Jorge Luiz Guedes Sant’ana; Tarcisio Vanzin
Volume/Issue :
Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 8 - August
Google Scholar :
http://bitly.ws/9nMw
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/2DLLwlp
DOI :
10.38124/IJISRT20AUG786
Abstract :
In recent history, humanity is experiencing a
confrontation with an invisible enemy, the Covid-19
virus. Even with all the technological resources
available, man found himself powerless and thousands
of lives have already been lost. It turns out that different
ways of coping with the pandemic have obtained
different results in terms of effectiveness in reducing the
number of deaths. In this sense, the objective of this
article is to represent the dynamics of coping with the
SARS Covid-19 pandemic with the simulation of
scenarios that used Conventional Medicine combined or
not with Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). The
method employed was a mathematical simulation model
of system dynamics developed based on 12 randomized
controlled clinical studies. The model was used to test
four policies to mitigate the effects of Covid-19: i)
adequate treatment conditions combining the two
techniques; ii) reductions in the administration fee and
time of using the TCM; iii) total withdrawal of
treatment with TCM and iv) no treatment. The results
demonstrates the main actions in the fight against
Covid-19, with the invasion of the virus, the
compromise of the patient, the defenses and behavior of
the organism and the treatment actions only with
conventional medicine or combined with traditional
Chinese medicine. Thus, the model allows reflecting on
how and when to use the available resources, in addition
to exploring a new tool in terms of Western science,
respecting the very limits that the model provides.
Furthermore, this model provides health professionals
and scientists with a tool that allows them to
dynamically monitor real-time scenarios and simulate
future situations regarding decision-making in events
that need to be analyzed immediately, such as pandemic
and epidemic situations.
Keywords :
SARS Covid-19, Traditional Chinese medicine, Systems dynamics, Chloroquine
In recent history, humanity is experiencing a
confrontation with an invisible enemy, the Covid-19
virus. Even with all the technological resources
available, man found himself powerless and thousands
of lives have already been lost. It turns out that different
ways of coping with the pandemic have obtained
different results in terms of effectiveness in reducing the
number of deaths. In this sense, the objective of this
article is to represent the dynamics of coping with the
SARS Covid-19 pandemic with the simulation of
scenarios that used Conventional Medicine combined or
not with Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). The
method employed was a mathematical simulation model
of system dynamics developed based on 12 randomized
controlled clinical studies. The model was used to test
four policies to mitigate the effects of Covid-19: i)
adequate treatment conditions combining the two
techniques; ii) reductions in the administration fee and
time of using the TCM; iii) total withdrawal of
treatment with TCM and iv) no treatment. The results
demonstrates the main actions in the fight against
Covid-19, with the invasion of the virus, the
compromise of the patient, the defenses and behavior of
the organism and the treatment actions only with
conventional medicine or combined with traditional
Chinese medicine. Thus, the model allows reflecting on
how and when to use the available resources, in addition
to exploring a new tool in terms of Western science,
respecting the very limits that the model provides.
Furthermore, this model provides health professionals
and scientists with a tool that allows them to
dynamically monitor real-time scenarios and simulate
future situations regarding decision-making in events
that need to be analyzed immediately, such as pandemic
and epidemic situations.
Keywords :
SARS Covid-19, Traditional Chinese medicine, Systems dynamics, Chloroquine
