Authors :
Shishay kiros weldegebriel; Ranavijai Singh; Kumelachew Yeshitela
Volume/Issue :
Volume 6 - 2021, Issue 4 - April
Google Scholar :
http://bitly.ws/9nMw
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/3ortcAX
Abstract :
This scientific investigation quantified future
land use/ land cover variations on ecosystem service
values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region
for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover
dynamics data for the year 2019 and predicted LULC
changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving
forces was the most important step in predicting the
future LULC and was performed using the cellular
automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land
use simulation model by coupling human and the natural
driving forces. Scenarios were made under business as
usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial
planning. In a business-as-usual scenario, it was detected
that ecosystem services value will fall by 2030 from the
base year of 2019, while under spatial planning scenario,
the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. The
results can serve as valuable information on policy
design in developing land use options, which aid to
enhance ecosystem service value. Therefore, special
attention should be given to the rehabilitation of
ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural
vegetation and water bodies. Generally, these results
offer useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly
policies to achieve sustainable development goals.
Keywords :
Scenario, Ecosystem Service, Value, Land Use/Land Change, Sustainable Development Goals.
This scientific investigation quantified future
land use/ land cover variations on ecosystem service
values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region
for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover
dynamics data for the year 2019 and predicted LULC
changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving
forces was the most important step in predicting the
future LULC and was performed using the cellular
automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land
use simulation model by coupling human and the natural
driving forces. Scenarios were made under business as
usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial
planning. In a business-as-usual scenario, it was detected
that ecosystem services value will fall by 2030 from the
base year of 2019, while under spatial planning scenario,
the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. The
results can serve as valuable information on policy
design in developing land use options, which aid to
enhance ecosystem service value. Therefore, special
attention should be given to the rehabilitation of
ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural
vegetation and water bodies. Generally, these results
offer useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly
policies to achieve sustainable development goals.
Keywords :
Scenario, Ecosystem Service, Value, Land Use/Land Change, Sustainable Development Goals.
