Authors : Adeboyejo A.T.; O. A. Olaitan; D.V. Ogunkan

Volume/Issue : Volume 9 - 2024, Issue 8 - August

Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/2s4cyn6u

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/4cne3m9t

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24AUG710

Abstract : Against the background of surreptitious impact of climate change on rural communities, where living and livelihood construction are farm-based or related, and the generally observed asthenic adaptive responses of rural households to poverty, this study examines the response patterns of rural households to climate change and poverty in Surulere, local government area of Oyo State, Nigeria. Thirty-eight years of temperature and rainfall data, were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Lagos, and projected till 2045AD. The ten constituent geopolitical ward headquarters were purposively selected, and 355 questionnaires proportionally administered to household heads to elicit information on their socio-economic characteristics, and, expenditure on basic necessities of life. Descriptive statistics and Likert scales were employed to measure multidimensional and monetary poverty and household response patterns. The analysis shows that minimum temperature increased with time (r=0.43), while maximum temperature decreased with time (r=-0.21). Rainfall exhibited fluctuations that tended towards low increase (r=0.08). Further results reveal a similarly high pervasiveness of multidimensional and monetary poverty with over 90% of respondents earning and spending less than $13.3 per month on food, children's education, health challenges, among others.The response patterns to impact of climate change and poverty are mainly reactionary, involving a combination of livelihood diversification and traditional agricultural adaptation strategies. However, long-term adaptive measures such as access to climate information, improved seed varieties, and financial services are lacking.. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of community-based and regional efforts centered on adaptation, resilience, and tailor-made policies and programs to protect rural households and communities.

Keywords : Rural Households; Poverty; Climate Change Impact.

References :

1. Adewale, B. (2020). Financial Barriers to Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Extension, 31(3), 199-210.
2. Akande W; Ajamu A.T.; Adisa Razak (2021)  Prevalence, knowledge and perception of self-medication practice among undergraduate healthcare students” Journal of Pharmaceutical Policy and Practice. Vol 14 No 1 DOI: 10.1186/s40545-021-00331-w
3. Amini, C., & Dal Bianco, S. (2023). Multidimensional Poverty and Economic Growth: Exploring the Relationship in Low-Income Countries. World Development, 157, 105907. doi:10.1016/j. worlddev.2022.105907
4. Arnaud Chevalier, Colm Harmon, Vincent O’ Sulliva and Ian Walker, (2017). The impact of parental income and education on the schooling of their children. IZA Journal of Labour Economics. Vol 2 Article no 8
5. Agriculture & Food Security, 2020 Climatic extremes’ resilient livelihoods of rural households in Eastern Ethiopia. Published in 2020.BioMed Central
6. Ayinde, O. E., Ajewole, O. O., Ogunlade, I. and Adewumi, M.O. Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Production and Climate Change: A Case Study of Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa (Volume 12, No.6, 2010)
7. Bekele, T. (2018). Economic Constraints to Organic Fertilizer Use in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 22(1), 45-58.
8. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023) "Economic Development in an Era of Climate Change,”:https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/01/economic-development-in-era-of-climate-change-pub-88890 accessed March 2024
9. Cheung, K. C. K., Chan, W. S., & Chou, K. L. (2019). Material deprivation and working poor in Hong Kong. Social Indicators Research: Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 39-66, August.  DOI: 10.1007/s11205-019-02093-0
10. Dangeot, A., & Safojan, R. (2019). Identifying poor children: understanding the differences between poverty approaches. Review of Economics of the Household in Special IARIW-World Bank Conference “New Approaches to Defining and Measuring Poverty in a Growing World” Washington, DC, November 7-8, 2019
11. Deressa, T.T. & Hassan, R. 2010. Economic impact of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia: evidence from cross-section measures. Journal of African Economies, 18(4): 529–554.
12. Ezegwu, Chioma, Climate Change in Nigeria: The Impacts and Adaptation Strategies (December 30, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract =2543940 or http://dx.doi. org/10.2139/ssrn.2543940
13. Equitable growth (2014) Income inequality affects our children's educational opportunities. Washington Centre for Equitable Growth Published on September 1, 2014.
14. Fischer G., Shah M. and van Velthuizen H. (2002) "Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability". International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Report prepared under UN Institutional Contract Agreement 1113 for World Summit on Sustainable Development. Laxenburg, Austria.
15. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2023). "The State of the Global Climate and implications for food and agriculture." Retrieved from fao.org (FAOHome) April 2024
16. Frost C and Thompson S G 2000 Correcting for regression dilution bias: comparison of methods for a single predictor variable J. R. Stat. Soc. A 163 173–89
17. Hughes C.M; McElnay J.C.; Fleming G. F. (2001) Benefits and Risks of Self Medication” Journal of Drug Safety Vol 24. Number 14 pp 1027-1037 DOI 10.2165/00002018-200124140-00002
18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007a). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007b). Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (Eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, Martin L., Canziani, Osvaldo F., Palutikof, Jean P., van der Linden, Paul J., and Hanson, Clair E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000 pp.
22. Kane, S., Reilly, J., Tobey, J., 1992. An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture. Climatic Change 21, 17-35.
23. Kara, A., Jones, B., Smith, C., & Liu, Y. (2023). The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Reduction: A Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(3), 456-478. doi:10.1108/JES-04-2023-0156.
24. Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2007). Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. *Environmental Research Letters, 2*(1), 014002.
25. Mortimore, M. (2019). The Role of Bush Fallow in West African Agricultural Systems. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 13(1), 21-34.
26. Nambiro, E. (2019). Adoption of Organic Fertilizers among Smallholder Farmers in Kenya. Journal of Agricultural Research, 56(2), 123-135.
27. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)  "The Economic Impact of Climate Change over Time and Space," published in 2023. Available at: [NBER](https://www.nber.org/papers/w25650)
28. National Climate Assessment (NCA) (https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/ sectors/rural-communities Retrieved April 2024
29. National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2023). Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities. Retrieved from [NCA](https://nca2023.globalchange. gov)
30. NBS  https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/news/78 November 2022 Accessed April
31. Niggol, S., and Mendelsohn, R., 2008. Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management Agricultural Economics 38 (2008) 151–165
32. Mertz, O. (2020). Long-term Sustainability of Bush Fallow Systems in the Tropics. World Development, 35(5), 1211-1220.
33. Parry, M., N. Arnell, P. Berry, D. Dodman, S. Fankhauser, C. Hope, S. Kovats, R. Nicholls, D. Satterthwaite, R. Tiffin, and T. Wheeler (2009): Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change – A Review of UNFCCC and Other Recent Studies, International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, U.K.
34. Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias A. (Eds.), 1993. Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study. EPA 230-B-94-003, US EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC.
35. Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M.L., 1994. Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply. Nature 13., 133-138.
36. Saunders, P., Wong, M., & Bradshaw, J. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Poverty Measures: A Study of Monetary and Living Standards Approaches Using Survey Data from High-Income Countries. Journal of Social Policy, 52(2), 234-257. DOI:10.1017/ S0047279423000158.
37. ScienceDirect. (2023). Rural sustainable livelihood resilience to climate change: A strategic analysis. Retrieved from [ScienceDirect](https://www. sciencedirect.com)
38. SpringerLink. (2023). Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods, and Ecosystem Nexus: Forest Communities in Agroecological zones of Nigeria. Retrieved from SpringerLink (https://link.springer. com)
39. Tebaldi C and Knutti R 2007 The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections Phil.Trans.R.Soc. A 365 2053–75
40. Wang, J. Mendelsohn, R., Dinarc, R., Huangd, J., Rozellee, S., and Zhangd, L. 2009. The impact of climate change on China’s agriculture, Agricultural Economics 40 (2009) 323–337
41. World Bank. (2023). Climate-Smart Agriculture in Zimbabwe. Retrieved from [World Bank](https:// climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org)
42. World Bank. Mobilizing Private Capital for the Sustainable Development Goals. World Bank, 2024. World Bank Open Knowledge Repository, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org.
43. You, J., Li, X., Low, M., Lobell, D., & Ermon, S. (2017). Deep gaussian process for crop yield prediction based on remote sensing data. *Proceedings of the Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence_.,