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Reservoir-Scale Caprock Seal Integrity for CO2 and Hydrogen Storage: A Critical Review of Upscaling Methods and Uncertainty Propagation


Authors : Raymond Oluwadolapo Aderoju; Mojibola Esther Afolabi; Joy Ojodunwene Onuh

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 8 - August


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/nrcz4crx

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26aug944

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.


Abstract : Reservoir-scale caprock seal integrity during geological CO2 and underground hydrogen storage (UHS) depends on processes occurring well below the scale at which a safety assessment typically treats mineral dissolution and precipitation, capillary entry pressure at grain contacts, and stress-dependent pore structure. This review addresses one question precisely: how is finer-scale hydromechanical alteration translated into defensible continuum-scale parameters and reservoir-scale predictions, and what information is lost in that translation? We distinguish pore-scale observation, corescale measurement, constitutive closure, and reservoir-scale prediction as categorically different evidence types rather than treating them as interchangeable. Published experimental and simulation studies consistently document localized, order-ofmagnitude permeability increases along preferential dissolution pathways at small scale; the small number of studies that have attempted the full upscaling chain against an actual site report comparatively small net bulk change over decades to a century. We treat this as an open scale-dependence problem rather than a resolved discrepancy, and evaluate candidate explanations, including volume averaging, mineral buffering, connectivity and percolation thresholds, and flow-regime dependence via the Damköhler and Peclet numbers, against what published evidence demonstrates versus what remains a hypothesis. CO2 and H2 are treated as physically distinct problems, compared on molecular size, interfacial tension, capillary entry pressure, and reactivity, before their reservoir-scale outcomes are compared. We propose a physics-consistent workflow connecting characterization to reservoir-scale seal-integrity prediction with explicit uncertainty propagation and identify where physics-informed machine learning could prospectively, not presently, contribute. Claims not supported by verified evidence are flagged explicitly rather than filled with plausible-sounding literature.

Keywords : Caprock Integrity; Reservoir-Scale Upscaling; Seal Integrity Assessment; Representative Elementary Volume; Uncertainty Propagation; Carbon Storage; Underground Hydrogen Storage.

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Reservoir-scale caprock seal integrity during geological CO2 and underground hydrogen storage (UHS) depends on processes occurring well below the scale at which a safety assessment typically treats mineral dissolution and precipitation, capillary entry pressure at grain contacts, and stress-dependent pore structure. This review addresses one question precisely: how is finer-scale hydromechanical alteration translated into defensible continuum-scale parameters and reservoir-scale predictions, and what information is lost in that translation? We distinguish pore-scale observation, corescale measurement, constitutive closure, and reservoir-scale prediction as categorically different evidence types rather than treating them as interchangeable. Published experimental and simulation studies consistently document localized, order-ofmagnitude permeability increases along preferential dissolution pathways at small scale; the small number of studies that have attempted the full upscaling chain against an actual site report comparatively small net bulk change over decades to a century. We treat this as an open scale-dependence problem rather than a resolved discrepancy, and evaluate candidate explanations, including volume averaging, mineral buffering, connectivity and percolation thresholds, and flow-regime dependence via the Damköhler and Peclet numbers, against what published evidence demonstrates versus what remains a hypothesis. CO2 and H2 are treated as physically distinct problems, compared on molecular size, interfacial tension, capillary entry pressure, and reactivity, before their reservoir-scale outcomes are compared. We propose a physics-consistent workflow connecting characterization to reservoir-scale seal-integrity prediction with explicit uncertainty propagation and identify where physics-informed machine learning could prospectively, not presently, contribute. Claims not supported by verified evidence are flagged explicitly rather than filled with plausible-sounding literature.

Keywords : Caprock Integrity; Reservoir-Scale Upscaling; Seal Integrity Assessment; Representative Elementary Volume; Uncertainty Propagation; Carbon Storage; Underground Hydrogen Storage.

Paper Submission Last Date
30 - September - 2026

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