Lead-Lag Effect between Import Container Vessel Traffic and Freight Rates at Dar Es Salaam Port in Tanzania


Authors : WAMJUNGU, R. M; Dr. Kassembe, E

Volume/Issue : Volume 6 - 2021, Issue 12 - December

Google Scholar : http://bitly.ws/gu88

Scribd : https://bit.ly/3ENB5Hw

It was found that a lead-lag relationship between container vessel traffic and periodic pattern in the import container freight rate exists, but there is a limited lag-lead relationship and specific estimated pattern of the period variation found in Tanzania. The motive to this study was grounded on neoclassical economic theory that supply of cargo space by ship-owners or charters and derived demand for cargo space as the driving force towards basic ocean freight rates and its outcomes for the shipping business dynamics. Generally, container freight rates vary with periods of the year in an irregular way. This Dissertation employed the multiple linear regression model to analyse the lead-lag effect between container vessel traffic and the import container basic ocean freight rates at Dar es Salaam Port in Tanzania. Moreover, the study employed statistical methods to Test whether the months of the calendar year and Container Freight rates are independent, testing whether number of containers imported per Bill of Lading (B/L) and Import Container basic ocean Freight rate are correlated and testing whether Import Container basic ocean Freight rate and Container vessels traffic are correlated. However, statistical testing revealed that an import container basic ocean Freight rate is dependent on calendar year months since the null hypothesis was rejected (p-value=0.000) in favour of the alternative, an import Container basic ocean Freight is correlated with the number of containers imported per Bill of Lading (B/L) since the null hypothesis was also rejected (pvalue=0.000) in favour of the alternative and an import Container basic ocean Freight rate has no correlation with Container vessels traffic since statistical test failed to reject the null hypothesis (p=0.371). Moreover, 70% of the respondents showed the proof of inter-dependence between an import container basic ocean freight rate and months of the calendar year as opinions gathered by questionnaires administered to 48 respondents who were picked randomly.

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