Authors :
WAMJUNGU, R. M; Dr. Kassembe, E
Volume/Issue :
Volume 6 - 2021, Issue 12 - December
Google Scholar :
http://bitly.ws/gu88
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/3ENB5Hw
Abstract :
It was found that a lead-lag relationship
between container vessel traffic and periodic pattern in
the import container freight rate exists, but there is a
limited lag-lead relationship and specific estimated
pattern of the period variation found in Tanzania.
The motive to this study was grounded on neoclassical economic theory that supply of cargo space by
ship-owners or charters and derived demand for cargo
space as the driving force towards basic ocean freight
rates and its outcomes for the shipping business
dynamics. Generally, container freight rates vary with
periods of the year in an irregular way.
This Dissertation employed the multiple linear
regression model to analyse the lead-lag effect between
container vessel traffic and the import container basic
ocean freight rates at Dar es Salaam Port in Tanzania.
Moreover, the study employed statistical methods to Test
whether the months of the calendar year and Container
Freight rates are independent, testing whether number
of containers imported per Bill of Lading (B/L) and
Import Container basic ocean Freight rate are
correlated and testing whether Import Container basic
ocean Freight rate and Container vessels traffic are
correlated.
However, statistical testing revealed that an import
container basic ocean Freight rate is dependent on
calendar year months since the null hypothesis was
rejected (p-value=0.000) in favour of the alternative, an
import Container basic ocean Freight is correlated with
the number of containers imported per Bill of Lading
(B/L) since the null hypothesis was also rejected (pvalue=0.000) in favour of the alternative and an import
Container basic ocean Freight rate has no correlation
with Container vessels traffic since statistical test failed
to reject the null hypothesis (p=0.371). Moreover, 70% of
the respondents showed the proof of inter-dependence
between an import container basic ocean freight rate and
months of the calendar year as opinions gathered by
questionnaires administered to 48 respondents who were
picked randomly.
It was found that a lead-lag relationship
between container vessel traffic and periodic pattern in
the import container freight rate exists, but there is a
limited lag-lead relationship and specific estimated
pattern of the period variation found in Tanzania.
The motive to this study was grounded on neoclassical economic theory that supply of cargo space by
ship-owners or charters and derived demand for cargo
space as the driving force towards basic ocean freight
rates and its outcomes for the shipping business
dynamics. Generally, container freight rates vary with
periods of the year in an irregular way.
This Dissertation employed the multiple linear
regression model to analyse the lead-lag effect between
container vessel traffic and the import container basic
ocean freight rates at Dar es Salaam Port in Tanzania.
Moreover, the study employed statistical methods to Test
whether the months of the calendar year and Container
Freight rates are independent, testing whether number
of containers imported per Bill of Lading (B/L) and
Import Container basic ocean Freight rate are
correlated and testing whether Import Container basic
ocean Freight rate and Container vessels traffic are
correlated.
However, statistical testing revealed that an import
container basic ocean Freight rate is dependent on
calendar year months since the null hypothesis was
rejected (p-value=0.000) in favour of the alternative, an
import Container basic ocean Freight is correlated with
the number of containers imported per Bill of Lading
(B/L) since the null hypothesis was also rejected (pvalue=0.000) in favour of the alternative and an import
Container basic ocean Freight rate has no correlation
with Container vessels traffic since statistical test failed
to reject the null hypothesis (p=0.371). Moreover, 70% of
the respondents showed the proof of inter-dependence
between an import container basic ocean freight rate and
months of the calendar year as opinions gathered by
questionnaires administered to 48 respondents who were
picked randomly.
