Impact of Government Interventions on Corona Virus Transmission in Nigeria

Authors : Muhyideen Oloyede

Volume/Issue : Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 7 - July

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DOI : 10.38124/IJISRT20JUL005

Many measures such as multi-sectoral National Coronavirus Preparedness Group and social interventions were instituted by Nigerian governments before and after the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on February 27, 2020. Impacts of these intervention measures on COVID-19 transmission were assessed within the first 82 days in Nigeria and in the first 38 days in Kano state. These approaches toward containing the spread of COVID-19 include nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, multi-sectoral Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) was activated at Level 3, expansion of labouratories, RRT deployment etc which resulted in the slow transmission trajectory and low COVID-19 burden and death burden on the people. The analysis of the COVID-19 data obtained between February 27 and May 20, 2020 (82 days period) showed that Nigeria recorded lower death burden of one (1) per million population compare with other African countries like South Africa with death burden of 6 death per million population each and other countries, death burden increases (> 1) as COVID-19 cases increases. Similarly, COVID-19 burden of Nigeria is 33 cases per million which is also very low compared to other African countries and other highly affected countries like US and UK. By 20th May 2020, 6,677 confirmed cases and 202 deaths and 1,860 recovered from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 82, the exponential growth rate calculated was 0.05. The result of this study also provides epidemiological analysis of the first 40 days of COVID-19 outbreak in in the most populous state in Nigeria-Kano. Using this logistic model equation [y= 1.5*(1.3)x] generated from the curve, a total of 31,158 infections was averted in Kano state by the federal and state government intervention measures and citizen level of compliances as well as additional effort of WHO official which altogether brought the total infections to 900 as against 32,058 infections predicted by logistic model. Simulation of the same model predicts total infections of 6,092,642 by 9th of June more than half of state population in the absence of aforementioned interventions while by 11th of June 11,435,884 infections (state population). The results show COVID-19 positive cases are higher in the states with high population densities

Keywords : Africa; COVID-19; Nigeria; coronavirus; reproduction number; logistic model; non pharmaceutical interventions; Rapid Response Team (RRT).


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31 - December - 2023

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