Authors :
J.R. Francisco; A. Restificar; S.G. Gache-Balitao
Volume/Issue :
Volume 8 - 2023, Issue 11 - November
Google Scholar :
https://tinyurl.com/3jvbt346
Scribd :
https://tinyurl.com/4mb55rrw
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10254996
Abstract :
This study aims to forecast the monthly prices
of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines using different
ARIMA models. The study used monthly price data
from January 2018 to December 2022. The Box-Jenkins
methodology was followed to select the best ARIMA
models. The results show that the ARIMA (1,1,9),
ARIMA (8,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,9) are the models that
best fit for forecasting the prices of Fresh Chicken
Breast, Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken
Wings, respectively in the Philippines. The forecasted
prices show a steady increase over the next five years,
with the average monthly price of Fresh Chicken Breast,
Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken Wings
expected to rise from 212.01, 199.82 and 210.62 pesos per
kilogram, respectively, in December 2022 to 264.16.
247.70, 269.95 per kilogram, respectively in December
2027. The study concludes tha t Auto Regressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a powerful tool
in forecasting fresh chicken parts in the Philippines
where the results gave reasonable and acceptable
forecasts. Additionally, the information generated can be
useful for producers, consumers, and policymakers in
mak ing informed decisions about the pricing and
production of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines.
Keywords :
E Views, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Fresh Chicken Parts Price and Estimate Equation using Candidate Models.
This study aims to forecast the monthly prices
of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines using different
ARIMA models. The study used monthly price data
from January 2018 to December 2022. The Box-Jenkins
methodology was followed to select the best ARIMA
models. The results show that the ARIMA (1,1,9),
ARIMA (8,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,9) are the models that
best fit for forecasting the prices of Fresh Chicken
Breast, Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken
Wings, respectively in the Philippines. The forecasted
prices show a steady increase over the next five years,
with the average monthly price of Fresh Chicken Breast,
Fresh Chicken Fully Dressed and Fresh Chicken Wings
expected to rise from 212.01, 199.82 and 210.62 pesos per
kilogram, respectively, in December 2022 to 264.16.
247.70, 269.95 per kilogram, respectively in December
2027. The study concludes tha t Auto Regressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a powerful tool
in forecasting fresh chicken parts in the Philippines
where the results gave reasonable and acceptable
forecasts. Additionally, the information generated can be
useful for producers, consumers, and policymakers in
mak ing informed decisions about the pricing and
production of fresh chicken parts in the Philippines.
Keywords :
E Views, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Fresh Chicken Parts Price and Estimate Equation using Candidate Models.
