Factors Determining Maritime Transport Market: Time Series Econometric Analysis on Container Throughput of Cambodia’s Ports


Authors : KiriromCheav

Volume/Issue : Volume 6 - 2021, Issue 11 - November

Google Scholar : http://bitly.ws/gu88

Scribd : https://bit.ly/3m1WWV9

The significantly increased demand for container throughput and cargo traffic volume transported in Cambodia has improved and accelerated the port output advancement and the development of new terminal. The main objective of this research is to investigate the long-run and short-run relationships, as well as to identify the influences on Cambodian combined international ports’ container throughput.The researcher collected the yearly data (1992 - 2017) from reliable and official sources of PAS and PPAP ports, IMF, WB, and MOC, and additionally interviewed with port authorities, port operators, and qualified stakeholders. The econometric approaches of The Unit Roots Test, Johansen Test of Cointegration, VECM, and Test for Stability are performed and applied in the analysis on the time series data between container throughput as the dependent variable and independent variables such as number of ship call, export, import, and GDP per capita. The estimation result confirmed and explained the effect of long-run relationships between container throughput and number of ship call, export, import, and GDP per capita for one rank of vector cointegration. That means all the factors move together to explain the changing demand for container throughput of Cambodia’s ports in the long-run equilibrium. The number of ship call and export has a significantly positive impact. Alternatively, the import and GDP per capita shows a statistically significant and relatedly negative influence on container throughput. Nevertheless, it is crucial to disclose the estimation resultfrom the VECM did not find a short-run relationship. That means, in the short-run equilibrium, the affecting factors did not move together to demonstrate the change of container throughput demand. It is crucial for policy implication for government, port authorities, etc. The best attentive insights, measures and actions would help manage and achieve the growing container throughput demand, yielding fruitful results in output and performance of the port through the planning, developing and building new ports, port facilities, infrastructures, and terminals etc. Furthermore, the findings have also contributed to closing the previously identified study gap. Because the model and analysis on container throughput has encouraged the export activities and domestic productions and stimulated growth of economy, as well as in order to propose and develop the maritime transport strategic policy and development for Cambodia to support the higher demand of ports throughput in the future.

Keywords : Time Series, Econometrics, Vector ErrorCorrection Model, Maritime Transport, Container Throughput and Ports

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