Development of Construction Planning Strategies for Coastal Project using Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors : Nidal Barhoom, Can Elmar Balas.

Volume/Issue : Volume 3 - 2018, Issue 8 - August

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In Turkey it is obvious that due to the risk of damage and uncertainties inherent in the construction of harbor projects that there is a substantial overrun in the project targets. So, it is very hard to find one of coastal construction projects which is completed within the determined time and budget as compared to classical construction projects on land. Therefore. The main purpose of this study is trying to achieve the project objectives on time and budget, by applying the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) concept to the activities in the critical path that introduced from classical construction network that based on critical path method and to the costs of breakwater, quays, and boatyard. In the MCS model, the completion time and cost of activities are modeled as random variables by using normal probability distribution which is fitted statistically from akin projects carried out in Turkey, to represent the effects of total uncertainty that resulted from the design stage and the construction stage of harbor structures. In this study also, another important objective is to help decision maker to managing risks in a coastal construction projects by using practical techniques of risk management that dealing with risks and uncertainties which inherent in a coastal construction project. The suggested approach MCS and the risk management framework are applied to the construction operation of Arsin fishery harbor. Finally, the results of the analysis of this study are presented with discussion of risk response strategies by selecting one or more appropriate strategies from alternative strategies of risk management.

Keywords : Construction Strategies, Coastal Projects, Scheduling, Network Planning, Cost Simulation, CPM, MCS, Risk Analysis, Breakwaters.


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