Authors : Hamuvwimi Ng’andu Daniel; Hu Junjuan; Shiri Tawanda

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 8 - August

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Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/ydmwxf4j

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26aug631

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Abstract : Exchange-rate movements constitute an important channel of monetary transmission in commodity-exporting emerging economies, where foreign-currency liabilities, concentrated export structures and relatively shallow financial markets amplify their effects on private-sector credit. Existing work on Zambia relies primarily on symmetric linear models that impose identical responses to exchange-rate depreciations and appreciations, an assumption that may obscure important nonlinear adjustment. This study evaluates that assumption using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model estimated with 55 quarterly observations covering 2012Q2–2025Q4.

Keywords : Exchange-Rate Asymmetry; Private Credit; Nonlinear ARDL; Bank of Zambia; Macroprudential Policy, Zambia.

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